Super Bowl LI – Patriots vs Falcons: Some Numbers to Ponder

If you are somebody in the process of handicapping Super Bowl LI, you are no doubt beset by a lot of numbers, and to go through all of them in detail might create what is, in the trade, known as “paralysis through overanalysis.” Where you try to do is give you some of the key numbers that might be operative for this game, which kicks off at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday at NRG Stadium in Houston. Also remember that BetAnySports customers can get reduced juice, which gives them better “numbers” before the game starts, and then after the kickoff, they can continue wagering by using the state-of-the-art software available through Live Betting Ultra.

Patriots vs Falcons – BetAnySports Super Bowl LI Betting Line:

And speaking of numbers, let’s give you the current Super Bowl LI odds (of course, subject to change) on this game, as they have been established at BetAnySports:

New England Patriots -3
Atlanta Falcons +3
Over 58.5 points -110
Under 58.5 points -110
Pats to Win -155
Falcons to Win +135

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Patriots vs Falcons – Our Take:

Tom Brady, the New England Patriots quarterback, had to sit out the first four games of the season, but once he got going, he was hard to stop. Brady had 28 touchdown passes in the regular season with only two interceptions, and that was the best ratio in NFL history. He also has been phenomenal when dealing with blitzing, as he has thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception in his 99 attempts, being sacked only two times. We say this because the Atlanta Falcons have been blitzing more than usual lately, and that is probably the only way they are going to upset Brady’s timing in this game.

And speaking of timing, Brady releases the ball about as quickly as any quarterback in the NFL, getting rid of it in an average of 2.32 seconds. That is one of the reasons he was sacked only 20 times, behind an offensive line that was much revitalized this season.

Here’s one number that is worth digesting – the Falcons have allowed more yards receiving on a per-game basis to running backs (about 53) than any other team in the NFL. This is something potentially important because Brady loves to throw to his running backs, particularly Dion Lewis and James White. This is part of the short passing strategy that almost works like a long handoff. But when Brady actually DOES want to hand the ball off, he can give it to LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 18 touchdowns, more than anyone in the league.

New England’s defense has not faced a lot of high-powered offenses, and certainly nothing like they’re going to encounter with the Falcons, but they did make their opponents work harder to score than any other stop unit in the NFL. The other team had to gain 20.2 yards per every point they scored. And BetAnySports patrons should know that New England has held 13 of its last 15 opponents below 20 points.

The Patriots also are not likely to be victims of the “slow starter” syndrome. They have scored more first quarter points than anyone (8.6 per game) and allowed fewer (1.9 per contest). That’s pretty impressive, as is the fact that even though they lost All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to an injury, they have registered an 11-0 straight-up record without him.

It’s very interesting that the Patriots can work the short game so well, because Atlanta does not do a real good job defending against opponents in the red zone. While it is true that in many of their games they had a big lead and could afford to concede touchdowns late, they have still allowed the opposition to score touchdown 72% of the time they have gotten inside the 20 yard line. That is, as it stands right now, the worst figure in the NFL. Could that be the thing that makes the difference? Maybe, maybe not. After all, there are a whole lot of numbers we haven’t even discussed.

By Charles Jay

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